This is an important warning to my friends.
The Gambler’s Fallacy
The above video is an excellent introduction to the gambler’s fallacy. This is the misconception that prior outcomes will have an effect on subsequent independent events. The classic example for this is the gambler who watches a run of 9 blacks on a roulette wheel with only red and black, and rushes to place all his money on red. He is sure that red must come up – after all the probability of a run of 10 blacks in a row is 1/1024. However, because the prior outcomes have no influence on the next spin actually the probability remains at 1/2.
Maths is integral to all forms of gambling – the bookmakers and casino owners work out the Expected Value (EV) for every bet that a gambler makes. In a purely fair game where both outcome was equally likely (like tossing a coin) the EV would…
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