The Gambler’s Fallacy and Casino Maths


This is an important warning to my friends.

IB Maths Resources from Intermathematics

The Gambler’s Fallacy

The above video is an excellent introduction to the gambler’s fallacy.  This is the misconception that prior outcomes will have an effect on subsequent independent events.  The classic example for this is the gambler who watches a run of 9 blacks on a roulette wheel with only red and black, and rushes to place all his money on red.  He is sure that red must come up – after all the probability of a run of 10 blacks in a row is 1/1024.  However, because the prior outcomes have no influence on the next spin actually the probability remains at 1/2.

 gambling2

Maths is integral to all forms of gambling – the bookmakers and casino owners work out the Expected Value (EV) for every bet that a gambler makes.  In a purely fair game where both outcome was equally likely (like tossing a coin) the EV would…

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About eslkevin

I am a peace educator who has taken time to teach and work in countries such as the USA, Germany, Japan, Nicaragua, Mexico, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman over the past 4 decades.
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