Climate Change is Hitting these Cities as Donald Trump Holds Nose

Map: These are the cities that climate change will hit first

 

 By Max Fisher

Climate scientists sometimes talk about something called “climate departure” as a way of measuring when climate change has really changed things. It’s the moment when average temperatures, either in a specific location or worldwide, become so impacted by climate change that the old climate is left behind. It’s a sort of tipping point. And a lot of cities are scheduled to hit one very soon.

A city hits “climate departure” when the average temperature of its coolest year from then on is projected to be warmer than the average temperature of its hottest year between 1960 and 2005. For example, let’s say the climate departure point for D.C. is 2047 (which it is). After 2047, even D.C.’s coldest year will still be hotter than any year from before 2005. Put another way, every single year after 2047 will be hotter than D.C.’s hottest year on record from 1860 to 2005. It’s the moment when the old “normal” is really gone.

A big study, just published in the scientific journal Nature, projected that the Earth, overall, passes climate departure in 2047. The study also projects the year of climate departure in dozens of specific cities. Here, from The Post’s graphics team, is a map of their findings:

(Leonard Bernstein and Gene Thorp/The Washington Post)

The cities marked by dark red dots are projected to hit climate departure really, really soon. Bad news: Many of these are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Lagos, Africa’s largest city, with a population 21 million and rising, is already vulnerable to flooding. It’s got only 16 years before it hits climate departure. Also vulnerable are Caribbean cities such as Kingston, Jamaica, which passes the tipping point in 2023.

The light red cities have a bit more time but are some of the most worrying cases, including megacities in China and India, not to mention the major urban centers of the Middle East. Food insecurity and drought are difficult issues in many of these areas. The fact that these cities pass climate departure so soon is a scary reminder of how rapidly they’re going to feel the effects of climate change.

Read the rest of this article here.